The demand for warehouses by e-commerce companies continues to be quite strong. Some are starting to worry about the possibility of an excess supply of projects in the State of São Paulo, where the largest consumer market and most of the stock is concentrated on projects ready and in development. With the substantial increase in demand for areas since the covid-19 pandemic, investments in warehouse production accelerated.
According to the president of SiiLA, Giancarlo Nicastro, of the 856 thousand sq metres of warehouses expected to enter the São Paulo market, only 40% are pre-leased in the fourth quarter. By 2022, SiiLA estimates a recorded delivery of projects in the State of São Paulo, totalling 2 million sq metres. In the executive's evaluation, the expected completion of nearly 3 million sq metres in 15 months is a warning point and could result in a downward revision of ongoing investments.
The president of SiiLA points out that while competition for warehouse tenants tends to increase as the projects are completed, construction costs continue to rise. Given the high-interest rates, the segment's profitability may not meet the developers and investors expectations.
Nicastro also points to the distinct moments experienced by the logistics warehouse segment in São Paulo and the rest of the country. While other states are starting to get projects with the so-called "large ships", 80% of those who seek SiiLA for information about this sector want information on locations, in the capital of São Paulo, for the "last mile", in other words, about the last point of storage of the product before delivery to consumers. In general, these points are adaptations of existing properties.